In a razor-thin election race, political analyst Allan Lichtman , renowned for his accurate predictions, has asserted that the upcoming polls for the 2024 Presidential election will remain unaffected by the so-called " October surprise ."
Lichtman, co-founder of the "13 Keys to the White House" system, said, “One of the greatest myths of American politics is the October surprise. I have never changed my prediction in response to such events because the keys gauge the big picture of the incumbent government’s strength and don’t sway by campaign happenings.”
Lichtman, who has forecasted the outcomes of nearly every US presidential election over the past fifty years— except the controversial 2000 election between George W. Bush and Al Gore—has confidently predicted that Kamala Harris will emerge victorious in 2024.
Lichtman holds a Ph.D. from Harvard University, focusing on modern American history and quantitative methods. He is a distinguished professor at the American University in Washington, DC, and has authored 13 books alongside numerous academic articles.
Since joining the race in late July, Harris has consistently led national polling averages against former President Donald Trump . Following a highly publicised debate in Pennsylvania on September 10, which attracted over 67 million viewers, Harris’s lead increased from 2.5 percentage points on the day of the debate to 3.3 points a week later. This gain was accompanied by a slight decline in Trump’s polling average, which fell by half a percentage point.
While national polls can provide insights into candidate popularity, they may not be definitive indicators of election outcomes due to the US electoral college system. With 538 electoral votes up for grabs—requiring 270 for victory—most states tend to vote predictably along party lines, leaving only a handful of battleground states to ultimately decide the election.
Lichtman, co-founder of the "13 Keys to the White House" system, said, “One of the greatest myths of American politics is the October surprise. I have never changed my prediction in response to such events because the keys gauge the big picture of the incumbent government’s strength and don’t sway by campaign happenings.”
Lichtman, who has forecasted the outcomes of nearly every US presidential election over the past fifty years— except the controversial 2000 election between George W. Bush and Al Gore—has confidently predicted that Kamala Harris will emerge victorious in 2024.
Lichtman holds a Ph.D. from Harvard University, focusing on modern American history and quantitative methods. He is a distinguished professor at the American University in Washington, DC, and has authored 13 books alongside numerous academic articles.
Since joining the race in late July, Harris has consistently led national polling averages against former President Donald Trump . Following a highly publicised debate in Pennsylvania on September 10, which attracted over 67 million viewers, Harris’s lead increased from 2.5 percentage points on the day of the debate to 3.3 points a week later. This gain was accompanied by a slight decline in Trump’s polling average, which fell by half a percentage point.
While national polls can provide insights into candidate popularity, they may not be definitive indicators of election outcomes due to the US electoral college system. With 538 electoral votes up for grabs—requiring 270 for victory—most states tend to vote predictably along party lines, leaving only a handful of battleground states to ultimately decide the election.
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