Power black-outs less likely this winter but report still warns of 'tight days'

The threat of winter powerblack-outs has reduced - but there are still warnings of “tight days”, according to a report.

Britain’s energy network operator has declared said margins - the amount of spare power to meet peaks in demand - have risen to the highest level for six years. According to the National Energy System Operator, the buffer is 900 megawatts - equivalent to roughly three gas power stations - more than last winter.

That is partly due to more battery storage but also having to rely on gas-fired power plants and imports. NESO also warned “some tighter periods on the electricity system are still possible over the winter months.”

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Deborah Petterson, its director of resilience and emergency management, said: "A resilient and reliable energy supply is fundamental to our way of life. At NESO we are looking at the upcoming winter and can report this year's winter outlook sets out the strongest electricity margins in six years.

"It is critical that we continue our work with the wider energy industry to prepare for the coming months to build on this foundation and maintain our world-leading track record of reliability."

Analysis from National Gas indicated Britain also has enough gas supply to meet peak demand. This was the case “even accounting for unforeseen network outage scenarios”.

The gas network operator said gas demand is expected to be 3% lower than last winter, easing pressure. Glenn Bryn-Jacobsen, director of energy systems and resilience at National Gas, said: “As we head into winter, we remain confident in the resilience of our gas system and our ability to meet Britain's energy needs during periods of peak demand.

"The energy landscape is evolving, with a growing reliance on imports and the continued decline of UK continental shelf supplies. Meeting these challenges requires a co-ordinated, forward-looking approach, and we're working closely with Government, industry, and regulators to develop the right solutions that safeguard security of supply for the future."

But Angharad Hopkinson, Greenpeace UK’s political campaigner, said: “Gas power generators will be rubbing their hands at this prospect – but it’s deeply concerning for bill payers. Britain’s rigged energy system allows gas plants to name their price when supply is tight – sometimes pocketing mega-profits up to fifty times the normal market rate. This kind of profiteering has to stop.”

Jess Ralston, energy analyst at the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit, said: " While renewable generation is ever-growing, providing a record 55% electricity in summer this year, Britain's winter blackout risk is at its lowest since before Covid.

"Not only this, but renewables are lowering wholesale electricity prices by up to a quarter, and more batteries are being brought online which can store up homegrown, green energy. It is clear that as the North Sea continues its inevitable decline more British renewables mean less dependence on foreign gas and volatile international markets, and greater energy independence."