China is unlikely to get involved in the ongoing faceoff between India and Pakistan following the recent Pahalgam terror attack, news agency PTI said on April 27 qouting a former Indian army commander. China's actions at this juncture will be majorly influenced by the existing geopolitical dynamics and tariff-related intricacies, Lt Gen (retd) Rana Pratap Kalita told the news agency in an interview.
The former armyman, however, said that China's alliance with Pakistan is well established. “After the Galwan incident in 2020, extensive discussions and consultations between the two nations led to the resolution of the stand-off at the remaining friction points,” Kalita said.
Kalita noted that a “process of normalization” has been initiated after addressing the last areas of discord, and that bilateral mechanisms have gained momentum, which includes discussions aimed at launching direct flights and resuming the Kailash Mansarovar Yatra. He also highlighted the impact of increased trade tariffs imposed by the US on both India and China, pointing out that this situation affects the global economy as well.
Given that both nations are significant players in manufacturing and consumption, changes in tariffs will have pronounced effects, he explained.
“Considering these complexities alongside the geopolitical developments, it is challenging to forecast whether there will be any direct involvement from China regarding the instability sparked by the Pahalgam incident. However, at this point, I do not foresee their direct engagement,” the former army commander remarked. He also underscored the known vulnerabilities of the sea link with Pakistan, emphasizing the significance of access to the Arabian Sea for China.
Regarding the security situation along the Bangladesh border, Kalita expressed concerns, particularly following the recent change in government in Bangladesh. “The sentiment against India has intensified since the ousting of the Sheikh Hasina government, as this has been exacerbated by religious extremists,” he remarked. He pointed out that the release of leaders associated with terrorist groups like Ansarul Bangla after the new caretaker government took office has further contributed to rising anti-India sentiments.
The former army commander also noted that visits by senior Pakistani military officials, including the Director General of the ISI, to Bangladesh have heightened vulnerabilities in the region. He expressed concerns about migration from Bangladesh and the infiltration aimed at promoting Islamic fundamentalism in India’s northeastern states, particularly in Assam and Tripura, which are demographically sensitive.
Kalita identified the narrow Siliguri corridor as another vulnerable point for India, as it is crucial for maintaining strategic connectivity with the northeast. Additionally, he raised alarms about the potential revival of terrorist camps in Bangladesh where groups like ULFA once operated. Nonetheless, he reassured that the Indian armed forces are equipped to handle any situation that may arise.
“Regular threat perception assessments are conducted, and response strategies are prepared accordingly. I am confident that our forces in the Eastern sector are ready to address any challenges,” he said.
The former armyman, however, said that China's alliance with Pakistan is well established. “After the Galwan incident in 2020, extensive discussions and consultations between the two nations led to the resolution of the stand-off at the remaining friction points,” Kalita said.
Kalita noted that a “process of normalization” has been initiated after addressing the last areas of discord, and that bilateral mechanisms have gained momentum, which includes discussions aimed at launching direct flights and resuming the Kailash Mansarovar Yatra. He also highlighted the impact of increased trade tariffs imposed by the US on both India and China, pointing out that this situation affects the global economy as well.
Given that both nations are significant players in manufacturing and consumption, changes in tariffs will have pronounced effects, he explained.
“Considering these complexities alongside the geopolitical developments, it is challenging to forecast whether there will be any direct involvement from China regarding the instability sparked by the Pahalgam incident. However, at this point, I do not foresee their direct engagement,” the former army commander remarked. He also underscored the known vulnerabilities of the sea link with Pakistan, emphasizing the significance of access to the Arabian Sea for China.
Regarding the security situation along the Bangladesh border, Kalita expressed concerns, particularly following the recent change in government in Bangladesh. “The sentiment against India has intensified since the ousting of the Sheikh Hasina government, as this has been exacerbated by religious extremists,” he remarked. He pointed out that the release of leaders associated with terrorist groups like Ansarul Bangla after the new caretaker government took office has further contributed to rising anti-India sentiments.
The former army commander also noted that visits by senior Pakistani military officials, including the Director General of the ISI, to Bangladesh have heightened vulnerabilities in the region. He expressed concerns about migration from Bangladesh and the infiltration aimed at promoting Islamic fundamentalism in India’s northeastern states, particularly in Assam and Tripura, which are demographically sensitive.
Kalita identified the narrow Siliguri corridor as another vulnerable point for India, as it is crucial for maintaining strategic connectivity with the northeast. Additionally, he raised alarms about the potential revival of terrorist camps in Bangladesh where groups like ULFA once operated. Nonetheless, he reassured that the Indian armed forces are equipped to handle any situation that may arise.
“Regular threat perception assessments are conducted, and response strategies are prepared accordingly. I am confident that our forces in the Eastern sector are ready to address any challenges,” he said.
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