The Axis My India exit poll has predicted a tight contest in the Bihar assembly elections, giving the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) a slight edge over the opposition Mahagathbandhan (MGB).
According to the survey released on Wednesday, NDA is projected to secure 43% of the vote share, just two percentage points ahead of the MGB’s 41%.
However, the poll also indicates that Tejashwi Yadav—the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) leader and Mahagathbandhan’s chief ministerial face—is the most preferred candidate for chief minister, ahead of incumbent Nitish Kumar.
As per the Axis My India survey, 34% of respondents named Tejashwi Yadav as their preferred CM, followed by 22% for Nitish Kumar (JD(U)). BJP’s Samrat Choudhary was backed by 10%, while LJP (Ram Vilas) leader Chirag Paswan received 5%. Prashant Kishor, who heads the Jan Suraaj Party (JSP), was preferred by 4%, with the remaining 12% either undecided or backing others.
The NDA, comprising the BJP, JD(U), LJP (Ram Vilas), HAM(S), and Rashtriya Lok Morcha (Upendra Kushwaha), maintains a slim advantage in overall vote share. The Mahagathbandhan—led by the RJD and including the Congress, VIP, and Left parties—remains close behind, making the race one of the closest in recent years.
Education-wise, the NDA’s lead holds steady across voter groups. Among those with no formal schooling, the NDA and MGB are nearly tied at 43% and 42%, respectively. The NDA’s support slightly rises among the educated, with 44% of graduates and 41% of postgraduates backing the alliance, compared to 41–42% for the MGB in those categories.
The Jan Suraaj Party, though a new entrant, appears to have gained some traction among educated voters, rising from 2–3% among less-educated respondents to 7–10% among graduates and professionals.
With the NDA’s narrow lead and Tejashwi Yadav’s strong personal appeal, the Axis My India exit poll points to a deeply divided electorate ahead of the official results on November 14.
According to the survey released on Wednesday, NDA is projected to secure 43% of the vote share, just two percentage points ahead of the MGB’s 41%.
However, the poll also indicates that Tejashwi Yadav—the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) leader and Mahagathbandhan’s chief ministerial face—is the most preferred candidate for chief minister, ahead of incumbent Nitish Kumar.
Post 10 of 17 - Bihar - Exit Poll - Preferred CM#BiharElections2025#BiharElections#ExitPoll#AxisMyIndia@PradeepGuptaAMI pic.twitter.com/x0unMekmjx
— Axis My India (@AxisMyIndia) November 12, 2025
As per the Axis My India survey, 34% of respondents named Tejashwi Yadav as their preferred CM, followed by 22% for Nitish Kumar (JD(U)). BJP’s Samrat Choudhary was backed by 10%, while LJP (Ram Vilas) leader Chirag Paswan received 5%. Prashant Kishor, who heads the Jan Suraaj Party (JSP), was preferred by 4%, with the remaining 12% either undecided or backing others.
The NDA, comprising the BJP, JD(U), LJP (Ram Vilas), HAM(S), and Rashtriya Lok Morcha (Upendra Kushwaha), maintains a slim advantage in overall vote share. The Mahagathbandhan—led by the RJD and including the Congress, VIP, and Left parties—remains close behind, making the race one of the closest in recent years.
Post 8 of 17 - Bihar - Exit Poll - Education-wise - Vote Share (%)#BiharElections2025#BiharElections#ExitPoll#AxisMyIndia@PradeepGuptaAMI pic.twitter.com/HuyQTUEnPV
— Axis My India (@AxisMyIndia) November 12, 2025
Education-wise, the NDA’s lead holds steady across voter groups. Among those with no formal schooling, the NDA and MGB are nearly tied at 43% and 42%, respectively. The NDA’s support slightly rises among the educated, with 44% of graduates and 41% of postgraduates backing the alliance, compared to 41–42% for the MGB in those categories.
The Jan Suraaj Party, though a new entrant, appears to have gained some traction among educated voters, rising from 2–3% among less-educated respondents to 7–10% among graduates and professionals.
With the NDA’s narrow lead and Tejashwi Yadav’s strong personal appeal, the Axis My India exit poll points to a deeply divided electorate ahead of the official results on November 14.
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